David Stainforth

 David is the project coordinator for the Casino 21 project described below. He studied Physics at Oxford University and subsequently spent some time working on the development of computer models of oceans. He then undertook an MSc in "Energy Systems and Environmental Management" at Glasgow Caledonian University; specialising in the potential for renewable energy in Hungary. This led him to take a post as a renewable energy consultant at ETSU, a division of AEA Technology. There he was involved in managing solar technology projects for both the UK New and Renewable Energy Programme and the European Commission's programmes on renewable and particularly, solar energy. He has also pursued various research projects looking at the soci-economic factors which influence the development and take-up of renewable energy in developing countries. Recently he returned to Oxford University to study the parameterisation of atmospheric waves known as gravity waves, in atmospheric GCMs (Global Circulation Models). He has now taken on the role of Project Coordinator for the Casino-21 project which he will be presenting at the PLANETWORK conference.
 
Casino-21: Public Participation in Climate Simulation of the 21St Century


David Stainforth Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic and Planetary Physics, University of Oxford. United Kingdom Casino 21 is a project aimed at quantifying uncertainty in forecasts of human-induced climate change. It will use a massive Monte Carlo approach which will involve running multiple versions, known as an ensemble, of a full-scale climate model. These runs will be carried out using idle CPU on personal computers. The project has two main themes. These are a) the execution of a very large, perhaps multi-million member, ensemble forecast of the climate of the 21st century, and b) the raising of public awareness of the difficulties and possibilities for climate prediction. An ensemble forecast involves comparing the predictions of many slightly different versions of a climate model. However, an ensemble of this size requires so much computing capacity that it would be infeasible using the facilities available to the research community. Therefore, following the lead of the SETI@home project, the plan is to utilize the spare CPU available on PCs in homes and businesses. To do this the project must engage the interest of many PC owners and their interest must be maintained for at least the length of the model run, which could be a year or more. Consequently the public awareness issues will be intrinsic to the project's success. The need for such a large number of model runs comes from the fact that climate models involve the parameterisation of many atmospheric and oceanic processes. Unfortunately the details of many of these parameters are only known within certain relatively large ranges. The goal is therefore to perturb selected forcing parameterisations within their range of uncertainty and perform many repeat simulations of the period 1950-2050. Each simulation will use a different combination of the chosen parameters. The model-versions which are inconsistent with observed climate change over the 1950-2000 period, i.e. up to the present day, will be discarded. The surviving simulations will provide an estimate of uncertainty in decadal-timescale forecasts of climate change under a range of future scenarios. Further details can be found at http://www.climate-dynamics.rl.ac.uk